Fertility decline - Article - Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS)

Family Matters No.63 Spring/Summer 2002 Australian Institute of Family Studies 14 gradual fertility decline from 1.91 in 1990 to 1.73 in 2001. Overall, the fertility rate has halved from 3.55 to 1.73 in a period of just 40 years. Changes in fertility do not occur in isolation from other social, cultural and economic changes. Although it is often difficult to establish cause and effect patterns, the three modern phases of Australian fertility decline were accompanied by parallel developments. The first period of sharp decline began at the same time as the oral contraceptive pill became widely available. The second and third periods occurred at the same time as the labour force participation of married women and mothers increased, when both men and women began to marry later, when cohabitation became more common, when school retention rates improved and more people went on to tertiary education, and when the nature of the workforce changed markedly, especially for younger people. The impact of fertility decline depends partly on the rate of decline and the level to which fertility declines. Sharp and rapid decline will have a different impact from gradual decline. While institutions and the economy may adjust to a gradual decline in numbers, it is much more difficult for institutions to adjust to a rapid fertility decline. The other element of fertility decline is the level to which fertility drops. Australia’s total fertility rate (TFR) in 2001 was 1.73. The total fertility rate indicates the number of children a woman will have if she experiences the current age-specific fertility rates at each age of her reproductive life. Demographers frequently focus on replacement level fertility, or the estimated number of children a women would need to have in her lifetime to replace herself and her partner. They estimate that in order to maintain a stable population size over lthough fertility decline has been apparent for some time, it has only recently been taken seriously by policy makers. However, as the baby boomer generation ages, the workforce shrinks and health care and income support costs increase, the implications of a low birth rate are becoming more evident. Fertility decline also has economic and institutional implications. Population growth has traditionally been a key source of economic growth, and concern has been widely expressed that without steady population growth, economic growth will stall. Fertility decline also has substantial implications for age based social institutions such as schools and universities where fewer children will mean reduced demand for places. The purpose of this article is to sketch some of the dimensions of fertility decline in Australia. It will briefly describe the extent to which fertility levels have declined and then describe the groups in society where fertility rates are relatively low. Since the paper by Castles in this issue of Family Matters deals with some of the international dimensions of fertility change, this article focuses on Australian patterns.